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Chipping Norton Property Market in 2017 and Beyond

22/10/2016
 

 

As the trees turn from green to hues of red and brown the Chipping Norton property market has a confident feel to it. With the underlying fundamentals of a continued lack of properties being built, a shortage of properties (both in terms of quantity and quality) coming to the market and the continued low mortgage rate environment, buyer enquiries from first time buyers and buy-to-landlords is strong and motivation is even stronger, given those inexpensive lending rates and general demand caused by under supply.

 

Now of course there are a few potential hurdles coming towards us in the coming months that could affect the Chipping Norton (and UK) property market. Mrs May has yet to get her teeth into Brexit negotiations and we don’t know what the US Presidential elections might do to the money markets around the world meaning that on the run up to Christmas some savvy buyers may take advantage of the lack of certainty by making cheeky offers but I don’t believe these will have a huge impact on property values (like the 2008 credit crunch).

 

You see, property ownership, whether it’s for yourself as a homeowner or buy-to-let landlord, is a long-term investment. In fact, focusing on buy-to-let, a number of landlords who own property in Chipping Norton have made contact with me recently asking for my thoughts on the future of the buy-to-let market in the area.  Well, as the politician Edmund Burke said in the 18th century, "Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it." ... in other words, to see the future you must look into the past.

 

Since the Millennium, the housing market has had everything thrown at it. The recent Brexit, last year’s General Election, the near meltdown of the world economy with the credit crunch, The Dot Com boom and bust, the housing market crisis in 2008, the housing booms of 2001 to 2004 ... the list goes on. In fact here is a graph (courtesy of the Land Registry) of average property values since the Millennium in the West Oxfordshire District Council area.





INSERT GRAPH HERE


Even though we had the Dot Com bubble burst in 2000 two years later, in January 2002, property values in the West Oxfordshire District Council area have risen from £122,400 (in January 2000) to £149,800 ... and on kept rising until September 2007 when they peaked at £254,800. Then we had the credit crunch and property prices continued to fall until April 2009 when they averaged £205,900 ... but look where they are now ….  £320,200.

 

The point I am trying to get across is long-term future property values are more helpful to landlord investors than the month by month headline-grabbing micro movements in the property market.  Look at the graph and you will see the growth in property values is an upward trend BUT the average darts about as each month goes by.  So don’t watch the property indexes and panic if values drop next month or the month afterwards because even in the glory days of 2001 to 2004 and 2012 to 2014, without fail, values always dropped slightly around Christmas, but people will always need a roof over their heads, and if they can’t buy and the council aren’t building anymore  ... only buy-to-let landlords can meet that demand.

 

Chipping Norton landlords are being hit in the pocket with the new up-and-coming taxation rules and yes, we might have a bumpy ride on the run up to Christmas (because of the points raised earlier), Brexit or no Brexit, but the trend will be a slow and steady upward momentum of property values, demand for rental properties and yields in the Chipping Norton property market into 2017 and beyond.

 


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